Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan Constitutes a Benefit to Putin

At first, the former US president appeared to adopt a firm approach concerning Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "significant consequences" in August if Vladimir Putin persisted hindering ceasefire talks, Trump finally imposed considerable penalties on Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly affected Putin's capacity to support his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, via his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by American and Russian diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European participation, he has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's initiative would essentially benefit Putin for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's political freedom in danger. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the proposal in reality undermine that very sovereignty. Seen as a Moscow's wish would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate experience, the former president persists to treat the war as a simple land disagreement, implying giving Russia a part of Ukrainian land will satisfy the leader. However, Putin's invasion is not merely about dominating a destroyed swath of economically weakened land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and Putin's obvious intention to destroy it so it stops acts as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his growing dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Surrenders

While freezing in status the currently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its military have been failed to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would make Ukraine's military defenses critically weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a key barrier to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, leaving Putin a open path to the capital in case he eventually opt to resume the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would make future fighting simpler for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to diminish the size of its armed forces from their present large number soldiers to a cap of this lower number. Significantly, the proposal sets no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's attempts to depict Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as radicals, the proposal declares: "Any radical ideology and actions must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to highlight this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump sets no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by conducting elections in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the initiative makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in regulation its policy of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent treaties in the past – including the 1994 agreement, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied territory in the region to Ukrainian control – why should anyone believe Putin on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so determined on western protection assurances. While the initiative warns of a "strong joint defense action" in case Russia renew its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees", the details range from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not just block Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the reassurance force, presumptively headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been depending to deter Putin from rebuilding his weakened forces, rearming, and reinvading.

World Reaction

A separate side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the peace and security of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary deterrent against future invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of alliance members, including the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's attacks, something they have {not